The Super 14 2010 season final has been played, and before I sit to watch the replay, without knowing the outcome, I share the following reflections.
Of the four teams that made the finals from the end of regular season log -
1st Bulls
2nd Stormers
3rd Waratahs
4th Crusaders
Only 2 of these teams have an historical expectancy of winning, and they - the Crusaders and Bulls - played each other in the semi-final, meaning only 1 (the Bulls as it turned out) could progress.
The other semi was played between two teams that do not have this historical expectantcy of winning.
The Bulls and the Stormers met overnight in Soweto, SA, for the title of 2010 Super 14 Champion.
Bulls to win. No reshaping of history in relation to teams who have won a Super competition during the last 18 or so years.
Showing posts with label Winning and Losing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Winning and Losing. Show all posts
Sunday, May 30, 2010
Monday, March 15, 2010
'Are the Reds the real deal now?' asked the butcher
'Are the Reds' the real deal?' asked the butcher.
'I don't know', I said. 'Ask me that in a year or two - they are in their honeymoon year.'
The first year under a new coach is what I call the honeymoon year. Everything is great, everyone's happy. Year two is a 'Settling' year, and if there are cracks they begin to appear towards the end of year 2 and become more apparent in year 3, the 'Reality' year.
The last Australian team to win a Super Rugby Championship, the Brumbies in 2004, did so in the 1st year of a new coaching cycle.
Moving up the ladder board substantially in the first year of new coaches cycle gives everyone a warm feeling and enhances the new coaches position when negotiating their contract in the latter stage of year 2 (ironcially they typically get signed up for a new term before the reality year 3 happens!)
One thing we can draw upon is the coaches pattern. McKenzie is 0 from 5 for Super Rugby Championships, although his former team was in the playoffs, and he made the finals quite a few times. So all things being equal, this could be repeated. Every year that goes and a coach does not win a championship, the lower the chances of them ever winning one. If a coach is aware of this, it must feel like a noose tightening around their neck. Winning coaches usually win early in their career, and consistantly.
However a challenge, rarely recognized, with finishing up too high on the ladder in year one is the pressure it places on year 2. The best long term outcome is a progressive and continual movement up the ladder in a multi-year plan.
Either way, each years final ladder result presents the opportunity to draw a trend graph.
One thing i am sure of for this year? The Western Force have taken on the Reds role as the Australian team whipping boys of the 2010 season, and will finish the lowest ranked Australian team.
The question that remains for the decision makers in Queensland Rugby - can the Reds win a championship under the current coach? Well the Reds are one of only 6 teams to have ever won Super Rugby, but is was a long time ago now. And the Coach has not won one yet. Can they collectively re-shape this? It will take something special. Even though to coaches take major credit for championship wins, I suggest if you look deeper you find stronger correlations or contributors. Have the Reds got this in the playing or support team?
'I don't know', I said. 'Ask me that in a year or two - they are in their honeymoon year.'
The first year under a new coach is what I call the honeymoon year. Everything is great, everyone's happy. Year two is a 'Settling' year, and if there are cracks they begin to appear towards the end of year 2 and become more apparent in year 3, the 'Reality' year.
The last Australian team to win a Super Rugby Championship, the Brumbies in 2004, did so in the 1st year of a new coaching cycle.
Moving up the ladder board substantially in the first year of new coaches cycle gives everyone a warm feeling and enhances the new coaches position when negotiating their contract in the latter stage of year 2 (ironcially they typically get signed up for a new term before the reality year 3 happens!)
One thing we can draw upon is the coaches pattern. McKenzie is 0 from 5 for Super Rugby Championships, although his former team was in the playoffs, and he made the finals quite a few times. So all things being equal, this could be repeated. Every year that goes and a coach does not win a championship, the lower the chances of them ever winning one. If a coach is aware of this, it must feel like a noose tightening around their neck. Winning coaches usually win early in their career, and consistantly.
However a challenge, rarely recognized, with finishing up too high on the ladder in year one is the pressure it places on year 2. The best long term outcome is a progressive and continual movement up the ladder in a multi-year plan.
Either way, each years final ladder result presents the opportunity to draw a trend graph.
One thing i am sure of for this year? The Western Force have taken on the Reds role as the Australian team whipping boys of the 2010 season, and will finish the lowest ranked Australian team.
The question that remains for the decision makers in Queensland Rugby - can the Reds win a championship under the current coach? Well the Reds are one of only 6 teams to have ever won Super Rugby, but is was a long time ago now. And the Coach has not won one yet. Can they collectively re-shape this? It will take something special. Even though to coaches take major credit for championship wins, I suggest if you look deeper you find stronger correlations or contributors. Have the Reds got this in the playing or support team?
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
History and winners
A breif summary of winners in Super rugby:
* From 1992, to 2009 - only 6 teams have ever won the competition
* 2 of those so long ago it's a distant memory
* Which leaves us with only 4 winning outfits in the last 10 years
* The NSW Waratahs have not won a thing, in 19 years of Super Rugby. Not the only ones, but as they are the power house financially, politically, demographically and geographically of Australian rugby (and SA and NZ power bases of their times have all produced at least one win), the Australian master plan isn't working - no wonder since they keep basing on the NSW Waratahs....)
* Only 3 of those 6 teams have a 100% win ratio in the big game, the final
* The Brumbies have the poorest win:loss ratio in finals of all teams who have played the finals. even though they deserve credit for going to the finals the second most times of all teans. But no-one remembers who lost....
Super 6
1992 - Queensland (now the Reds)
Super 10
1993 - Transvaal (then the Cats and now the Lions)
1994 - Queensland (now the Reds)
1995 - Queensland (now the Reds)
Super 12
1996 - Blues
1997 - Blues
1998 - Crusaders
1999 - Crusaders
2000 - Crusaders
2001 - Brumbies
2002 - Crusaders
2003 - Blues
2004 - Brumbies
2005 - Crusaders
Super 14
2006 - Crusaders
2007 - Bulls
2008 - Crusaders
2009 - Bulls
2009 -
Team Wins Runner-up
Team Won Runner Up
Crusaders 7 2
Blues 3 1
Brumbies 2 3
Reds 3 0
Bulls 2 0
Lions 1 0
Sharks 0 3
Waratahs 0 2
Highlanders 0 1
Hurricanes 0 1
Chiefs 0 1
Wins by Country
Country Wins Runner-up
New Zealand 10 6
Australia 2 5
South Africa 2 3
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_14#Past_winners
* From 1992, to 2009 - only 6 teams have ever won the competition
* 2 of those so long ago it's a distant memory
* Which leaves us with only 4 winning outfits in the last 10 years
* The NSW Waratahs have not won a thing, in 19 years of Super Rugby. Not the only ones, but as they are the power house financially, politically, demographically and geographically of Australian rugby (and SA and NZ power bases of their times have all produced at least one win), the Australian master plan isn't working - no wonder since they keep basing on the NSW Waratahs....)
* Only 3 of those 6 teams have a 100% win ratio in the big game, the final
* The Brumbies have the poorest win:loss ratio in finals of all teams who have played the finals. even though they deserve credit for going to the finals the second most times of all teans. But no-one remembers who lost....
Super 6
1992 - Queensland (now the Reds)
Super 10
1993 - Transvaal (then the Cats and now the Lions)
1994 - Queensland (now the Reds)
1995 - Queensland (now the Reds)
Super 12
1996 - Blues
1997 - Blues
1998 - Crusaders
1999 - Crusaders
2000 - Crusaders
2001 - Brumbies
2002 - Crusaders
2003 - Blues
2004 - Brumbies
2005 - Crusaders
Super 14
2006 - Crusaders
2007 - Bulls
2008 - Crusaders
2009 - Bulls
2009 -
Team Wins Runner-up
Team Won Runner Up
Crusaders 7 2
Blues 3 1
Brumbies 2 3
Reds 3 0
Bulls 2 0
Lions 1 0
Sharks 0 3
Waratahs 0 2
Highlanders 0 1
Hurricanes 0 1
Chiefs 0 1
Wins by Country
Country Wins Runner-up
New Zealand 10 6
Australia 2 5
South Africa 2 3
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_14#Past_winners
And that's not all the Bulls are happy to do
After 2 rounds something else is apparent about the Bulls.
The Bulls also stand apart from all teams, even those who traditionally espouse they define running rugby - the Bulls are happy to forgo the 3 points from gift penalties to drive to the line for a try and 5-7 points. I have never seen a team so consistantly and confidently do this. A great sign for their self-belief.
On this alone they look like they will be in the play-offs, provided the wheels don't fall off on their road trip or they suffer injury to key personal.
The Bulls also stand apart from all teams, even those who traditionally espouse they define running rugby - the Bulls are happy to forgo the 3 points from gift penalties to drive to the line for a try and 5-7 points. I have never seen a team so consistantly and confidently do this. A great sign for their self-belief.
On this alone they look like they will be in the play-offs, provided the wheels don't fall off on their road trip or they suffer injury to key personal.
Bulls happy to come from behind
After round 2 something else is apparent - the Bulls are taking on the Crusaders mentality (intentially or otherwise, and are happy to let the lead go to the opponent before coming back and taking over the game again.
And just as it worked for the Crusaders, sometimese it doesn't. There are going to times, especially when they are on the road, when they are not going to be able to pull it back in and will lose.
Seems that when you are a great team, confident and relaxed, you loose the lead often at the start.
And just as it worked for the Crusaders, sometimese it doesn't. There are going to times, especially when they are on the road, when they are not going to be able to pull it back in and will lose.
Seems that when you are a great team, confident and relaxed, you loose the lead often at the start.
Its been coming for so long - Reds beat Crusaders
Even though the Reds haven't beaten the Crusaders for some 10 years, this results been building up, at least when playing in Brisbane. The Crusaders have been so good for so long I believe they have a challenge raising their urgency when playing team with lesser recent performance histories. And if the game gets away on them, they don't currently have the magic needed to get back to win. It's been coming.
Reds - 41 v Crusaders (NZ) - 20
Reds - 41 v Crusaders (NZ) - 20
They've lost that winning feeling
Reds - 28 v Waratahs - 30 Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
The biggest challenge facing the Queensland Reds is losing the loser mindset. Not suggesting they aren't trying, but when you get familiar with losing, it's not easy expecting to win.
This game reminded me of the first round in 1998 - Queensland scored a try within minutes of the game against Otago Highlanders at the House of Pain. And finished with 3 tries to one - but still just lost. And this was after only two seasons on the slide, especially 1997, finishing 10th out of 12 teams.
Queensland now has over a decade of being on the slide. That's tough to change back to a winning culture and will take time. Whilst this is happening they don't need any destabilizing in the process or any move forward will be sabatagued. With a number of powerful parties keen to stick the pin into the Reds ballon, they have battles on many fronts to fight.
The biggest challenge facing the Queensland Reds is losing the loser mindset. Not suggesting they aren't trying, but when you get familiar with losing, it's not easy expecting to win.
This game reminded me of the first round in 1998 - Queensland scored a try within minutes of the game against Otago Highlanders at the House of Pain. And finished with 3 tries to one - but still just lost. And this was after only two seasons on the slide, especially 1997, finishing 10th out of 12 teams.
Queensland now has over a decade of being on the slide. That's tough to change back to a winning culture and will take time. Whilst this is happening they don't need any destabilizing in the process or any move forward will be sabatagued. With a number of powerful parties keen to stick the pin into the Reds ballon, they have battles on many fronts to fight.
Cantebury Crusaders not likely to support the punters
Apparently Cantebury Crusaders are tipped by the punters or similar to be a dominant force in the Top 4 or something like that.
I don't think so. They can make the Top 4, but I believe their incredible period of dominance is coming to end. They have been playing complacent catch up rugby, winning in the final quarter, for a long time now. Nice if you can do it. But not sustainable.
Now they are going to be spending more time wondering where it's gone wrong. And of course, the absence of McGraw at the start of the season doesn't help.
Their main concern now however is spending too much time looking over their shoulder and all around trying to work out where their mojo has gone.
I don't think so. They can make the Top 4, but I believe their incredible period of dominance is coming to end. They have been playing complacent catch up rugby, winning in the final quarter, for a long time now. Nice if you can do it. But not sustainable.
Now they are going to be spending more time wondering where it's gone wrong. And of course, the absence of McGraw at the start of the season doesn't help.
Their main concern now however is spending too much time looking over their shoulder and all around trying to work out where their mojo has gone.
South African Team the most disadvantaged
The South African teams are the most disadvantaged of all teams in the Super 14. They are on the road longer and travel further. To add to that they excacerbate this with their approach to training. Either way, no wonder their record on the road is dismal. Once they secure a home final however, it is usually a done deal.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
