Injuries as a predictor of the 2010 TriNations Series

I wrote at the end of the 2010 Super 14 Series about my theories/observations linking injury incidence within Australian provincial teams and their log placement.

Let's apply that to the upcoming 2010 Tri-Nations tournament.

This weekend, following Nathan Sharpe's injury in training, the media reported the entire Australian tight five was down to 2nd choice or lower players.

As a rough observation I believe that at about 12 of the starting 15 positions have been changed/disrupted due to injury. That's about 80% injury rate.

Without have the same knowledge of the Springboks or the All Blacks, it appears to me that the Boks have the choice of playing their starting line up, and the Blacks would not be far from this.

So the injury incidence, at a rough glance, over the last 4 wks, would rank from lowest to highest:

1. Spring Boks (lowest)
2. All Blacks
3. Australia (highest)

Will this be the order of the log at the end of the 2010 Tri-Nations tournament?

Injuries correlate with team success

Back in the early 1990s I tested my theory that the incidence and severity of injuries in a rugby team is inversely correlated with team success i.e. the more injuries you have, the lower down the competition ladder you finish.

I tested that theory and confirmed the hypothesis.  The Brumbies noted this and intentially, with my support, sought to replicate this in the second half of the 1990s and the early 2000s.  With success.

In 2010, I suggest that this theory is borne out again in at least the four Australian team - that their position on the ladder at the end of the 2010 Super 14 season will be inversely correlated with their injury stats.

First it was the Force to suffer a 'horrific injury run'. They will finish the lowest of the Australian team this  year.

Then it was the Brumbies to suffer a 'horrific injury run'.  They are currently sitting second bottom of the four Australian team, with three games left to change that.

The Waratahs have not attracted this level of 'horrific injury run', nor have the Reds. They sit 2 and 1 of the four Australian teams currently respectively. No surprise here.

The conspiracy of injury will ensure that few if any pick up on this pattern, and few if any learn from this and change their approach. The cycle will continue and the medical, therapy and pharamcuetical industries will continue to be the primary beneficiaries.

I was in the best condition of my life - I don't understand it....

'I was in the best condition of my life - I don't understand it.'

That was in essence what the athlete was reported in the media as saying - after his hamstring tore off from the bone.

I don't want to draw attention to the athlete or the organization, as they don't deserve anything perceived as negative aimed at them - they are simply a pretty good snapshot (in my opinion) of where the elite sporting world (and all levels down) are at in relation to the perspectives towards injury.

You see, the person responsible for injury prevention/rehabilitation added to this snapshot when he was quoted by the media as saying words to the effect:

'It was just a freak accident.'

You might get by now that I don't buy into this perspective - that in my opinion the athlete was not the best shape of his life (at least not in a global way - maybe in one specific area); and that it was not a freak accident.

Let me guess - after watching the video of the incident (no, I didn't guess on this, as this was reported in the media!) they didn't see anything significant that would explain why the injury would occur. Does that make it a freak accident? If we allow our bodies to get into an appropriate condition, and this leads to an injury during a relatively benign activity (like getting out of bed, tying your laces, picking something up off the floor - and yes, these are common actions associated with 'can't be explained' injuries) - does that mean it was a freak accident? No - it means we got so off track in our condition that a minor incident was all that it took to take us over the edge.

So we have a franchise out of pocket for the players salary for the year, a teams plans thrown into turmoil because they just lost their marque player a week or two before the season start, an athlete who is out of action for the year and who knows what long term ramifications - these are not light consequences. These are not freak circumstances. He was not in the condition of his life.

This occurred as a result of the low level of understanding of professional athletes and their service providers (and the broader community) of what it takes to cause an injury and what it takes to prevent an injury.

It's not good enough, but if people choose to participate in this perspective of injury, then they can't shift the responsibility away - they got what they deserved. There is a better way....