The Super 14 2010 season final has been played, and before I sit to watch the replay, without knowing the outcome, I share the following reflections.
Of the four teams that made the finals from the end of regular season log -
1st Bulls
2nd Stormers
3rd Waratahs
4th Crusaders
Only 2 of these teams have an historical expectancy of winning, and they - the Crusaders and Bulls - played each other in the semi-final, meaning only 1 (the Bulls as it turned out) could progress.
The other semi was played between two teams that do not have this historical expectantcy of winning.
The Bulls and the Stormers met overnight in Soweto, SA, for the title of 2010 Super 14 Champion.
Bulls to win. No reshaping of history in relation to teams who have won a Super competition during the last 18 or so years.
Showing posts with label Teams - Waratahs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Teams - Waratahs. Show all posts
Sunday, May 30, 2010
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Injuries correlate with team success
Back in the early 1990s I tested my theory that the incidence and severity of injuries in a rugby team is inversely correlated with team success i.e. the more injuries you have, the lower down the competition ladder you finish.
I tested that theory and confirmed the hypothesis. The Brumbies noted this and intentially, with my support, sought to replicate this in the second half of the 1990s and the early 2000s. With success.
In 2010, I suggest that this theory is borne out again in at least the four Australian team - that their position on the ladder at the end of the 2010 Super 14 season will be inversely correlated with their injury stats.
First it was the Force to suffer a 'horrific injury run'. They will finish the lowest of the Australian team this year.
Then it was the Brumbies to suffer a 'horrific injury run'. They are currently sitting second bottom of the four Australian team, with three games left to change that.
The Waratahs have not attracted this level of 'horrific injury run', nor have the Reds. They sit 2 and 1 of the four Australian teams currently respectively. No surprise here.
The conspiracy of injury will ensure that few if any pick up on this pattern, and few if any learn from this and change their approach. The cycle will continue and the medical, therapy and pharamcuetical industries will continue to be the primary beneficiaries.
I tested that theory and confirmed the hypothesis. The Brumbies noted this and intentially, with my support, sought to replicate this in the second half of the 1990s and the early 2000s. With success.
In 2010, I suggest that this theory is borne out again in at least the four Australian team - that their position on the ladder at the end of the 2010 Super 14 season will be inversely correlated with their injury stats.
First it was the Force to suffer a 'horrific injury run'. They will finish the lowest of the Australian team this year.
Then it was the Brumbies to suffer a 'horrific injury run'. They are currently sitting second bottom of the four Australian team, with three games left to change that.
The Waratahs have not attracted this level of 'horrific injury run', nor have the Reds. They sit 2 and 1 of the four Australian teams currently respectively. No surprise here.
The conspiracy of injury will ensure that few if any pick up on this pattern, and few if any learn from this and change their approach. The cycle will continue and the medical, therapy and pharamcuetical industries will continue to be the primary beneficiaries.
The fading point
Each session I look for a point at which a team fades and fails to recovery. The best example in the 2010 Super 14 season so far, with 3 games to go, has been the Chiefs.
A top 4 team for 3 games, they have not recovered from their loss at home to the Reds. If anything they have faded further. That's a very early season fade, and their ability to recover with so many games left may have many insiders scratching their head.
The most spectacular fade award historically and perenially would go to NSW. Until Coach McKenzie broke the mould, probably by applying training volumes used by Queensland during the 1990s, which for a very brief period Coach Dwyer used (1994 domestic tests vs. South Africa).
Now it appears Coach McKenzie is using these same methods on the originating team, as coach of the Queensland Reds. At least with the Reds he has a team that has been a winner, unlike NSW who as a provincial team have not won a championship since the introduction of Super Rugby in 1991 - that's nearly 20 years of failing to win the title.
One of the greatest tests of a teams workload and related recovery is their ability to win their first game home after being on the road. The Brumbies did it but they were playing the low ranked Cats. Queensland did it with a top of the table clash against the Bulls. The Chiefs failed this test, not they they were the only ones to in the 2010 season.
A top 4 team for 3 games, they have not recovered from their loss at home to the Reds. If anything they have faded further. That's a very early season fade, and their ability to recover with so many games left may have many insiders scratching their head.
The most spectacular fade award historically and perenially would go to NSW. Until Coach McKenzie broke the mould, probably by applying training volumes used by Queensland during the 1990s, which for a very brief period Coach Dwyer used (1994 domestic tests vs. South Africa).
Now it appears Coach McKenzie is using these same methods on the originating team, as coach of the Queensland Reds. At least with the Reds he has a team that has been a winner, unlike NSW who as a provincial team have not won a championship since the introduction of Super Rugby in 1991 - that's nearly 20 years of failing to win the title.
One of the greatest tests of a teams workload and related recovery is their ability to win their first game home after being on the road. The Brumbies did it but they were playing the low ranked Cats. Queensland did it with a top of the table clash against the Bulls. The Chiefs failed this test, not they they were the only ones to in the 2010 season.
Monday, April 5, 2010
He is the least fit looking....
During the Round 9 game between the NSW Waratahs and the SA provincial team the Cheetahs, one of the commentators described a Cheetahs prop as being the 'least fit looking....' etc etc. This was after a mention of the fact that he has missed no games this year or similar.
Comments about how someone 'looks fit' do not help the cause of physical and athletic preparation. At one time i am sure the commentator (an ex-player) knew better than this, but unforunately he along with the majmority get caught up in the mainstream misconception that you can judge a persons 'fitness' to succeed in sport by their looks.
This only results in mis-guided focus on low body fat and bulging biceps, neither which are in my opinion correlated with success on the scoreboard.
Reminds me of the before and after photos used by the Wallabies conditioner in the lead up to the 1999 world cup. I thought such dumb and misguided interpretations of preparedness for sport were limited to bodybuilding magazines....
Comments about how someone 'looks fit' do not help the cause of physical and athletic preparation. At one time i am sure the commentator (an ex-player) knew better than this, but unforunately he along with the majmority get caught up in the mainstream misconception that you can judge a persons 'fitness' to succeed in sport by their looks.
This only results in mis-guided focus on low body fat and bulging biceps, neither which are in my opinion correlated with success on the scoreboard.
Reminds me of the before and after photos used by the Wallabies conditioner in the lead up to the 1999 world cup. I thought such dumb and misguided interpretations of preparedness for sport were limited to bodybuilding magazines....
Friday, March 26, 2010
Waratahs v Force - 2 tired teams or tradition?
The Round 6 clash between the Force and the Waratahs was a close, low scoring, flat game. The commentators put it down to tradition, with the last 4 of their games being decided by 5 points or less.
I know another tradition - the Waratahs fading anytime from half-way onwards in the season. Now since Coach McKenzie was the first coach to stifle that tradition after it held for over a decade, they do seem less prone. But I am not convinced it's gone away.
As for the Perth. I have said enough about that - they define fatigue, by their fades, low win rate, and exhausted faces.
I know another tradition - the Waratahs fading anytime from half-way onwards in the season. Now since Coach McKenzie was the first coach to stifle that tradition after it held for over a decade, they do seem less prone. But I am not convinced it's gone away.
As for the Perth. I have said enough about that - they define fatigue, by their fades, low win rate, and exhausted faces.
Monday, March 15, 2010
'Are the Reds the real deal now?' asked the butcher
'Are the Reds' the real deal?' asked the butcher.
'I don't know', I said. 'Ask me that in a year or two - they are in their honeymoon year.'
The first year under a new coach is what I call the honeymoon year. Everything is great, everyone's happy. Year two is a 'Settling' year, and if there are cracks they begin to appear towards the end of year 2 and become more apparent in year 3, the 'Reality' year.
The last Australian team to win a Super Rugby Championship, the Brumbies in 2004, did so in the 1st year of a new coaching cycle.
Moving up the ladder board substantially in the first year of new coaches cycle gives everyone a warm feeling and enhances the new coaches position when negotiating their contract in the latter stage of year 2 (ironcially they typically get signed up for a new term before the reality year 3 happens!)
One thing we can draw upon is the coaches pattern. McKenzie is 0 from 5 for Super Rugby Championships, although his former team was in the playoffs, and he made the finals quite a few times. So all things being equal, this could be repeated. Every year that goes and a coach does not win a championship, the lower the chances of them ever winning one. If a coach is aware of this, it must feel like a noose tightening around their neck. Winning coaches usually win early in their career, and consistantly.
However a challenge, rarely recognized, with finishing up too high on the ladder in year one is the pressure it places on year 2. The best long term outcome is a progressive and continual movement up the ladder in a multi-year plan.
Either way, each years final ladder result presents the opportunity to draw a trend graph.
One thing i am sure of for this year? The Western Force have taken on the Reds role as the Australian team whipping boys of the 2010 season, and will finish the lowest ranked Australian team.
The question that remains for the decision makers in Queensland Rugby - can the Reds win a championship under the current coach? Well the Reds are one of only 6 teams to have ever won Super Rugby, but is was a long time ago now. And the Coach has not won one yet. Can they collectively re-shape this? It will take something special. Even though to coaches take major credit for championship wins, I suggest if you look deeper you find stronger correlations or contributors. Have the Reds got this in the playing or support team?
'I don't know', I said. 'Ask me that in a year or two - they are in their honeymoon year.'
The first year under a new coach is what I call the honeymoon year. Everything is great, everyone's happy. Year two is a 'Settling' year, and if there are cracks they begin to appear towards the end of year 2 and become more apparent in year 3, the 'Reality' year.
The last Australian team to win a Super Rugby Championship, the Brumbies in 2004, did so in the 1st year of a new coaching cycle.
Moving up the ladder board substantially in the first year of new coaches cycle gives everyone a warm feeling and enhances the new coaches position when negotiating their contract in the latter stage of year 2 (ironcially they typically get signed up for a new term before the reality year 3 happens!)
One thing we can draw upon is the coaches pattern. McKenzie is 0 from 5 for Super Rugby Championships, although his former team was in the playoffs, and he made the finals quite a few times. So all things being equal, this could be repeated. Every year that goes and a coach does not win a championship, the lower the chances of them ever winning one. If a coach is aware of this, it must feel like a noose tightening around their neck. Winning coaches usually win early in their career, and consistantly.
However a challenge, rarely recognized, with finishing up too high on the ladder in year one is the pressure it places on year 2. The best long term outcome is a progressive and continual movement up the ladder in a multi-year plan.
Either way, each years final ladder result presents the opportunity to draw a trend graph.
One thing i am sure of for this year? The Western Force have taken on the Reds role as the Australian team whipping boys of the 2010 season, and will finish the lowest ranked Australian team.
The question that remains for the decision makers in Queensland Rugby - can the Reds win a championship under the current coach? Well the Reds are one of only 6 teams to have ever won Super Rugby, but is was a long time ago now. And the Coach has not won one yet. Can they collectively re-shape this? It will take something special. Even though to coaches take major credit for championship wins, I suggest if you look deeper you find stronger correlations or contributors. Have the Reds got this in the playing or support team?
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Travel fatigue on first game back real for ANZ sides
Despite firm claims I've heard from coaches at national and provincial level, I firmly believe that the trip to South Africa by Australian and New Zealand provincial teams, if not handled properly, results in fatigued performances on the first game back home minimum.
Not to overlook the cost of failing to manage the training when the Australian teams are in SA - their poor win/loss record in SA speaks for itself - a discussion for another day.
Round 4 in this years Super 14 Competiton against confirmed my this theory - in fact is it is obvious now that even the commentators make loose mention of it. After participating in and observing Super rugby for nearly 20 years, I don't need to see any more evidence. Apparently the coaches do....
The Chiefs lost at home to the Reds and failed to get a 4 try bonus point. The Waratahs and the Brumbies both scraped a win at home against the Sharks and Cats respectively. None of the latter two winning teams were able to achieve a four try bonus point. The averages points scored by all six teams in these three games was roughly 50% of the average in the four games so far this year with the new rule interpretations.
Not to overlook the cost of failing to manage the training when the Australian teams are in SA - their poor win/loss record in SA speaks for itself - a discussion for another day.
Round 4 in this years Super 14 Competiton against confirmed my this theory - in fact is it is obvious now that even the commentators make loose mention of it. After participating in and observing Super rugby for nearly 20 years, I don't need to see any more evidence. Apparently the coaches do....
The Chiefs lost at home to the Reds and failed to get a 4 try bonus point. The Waratahs and the Brumbies both scraped a win at home against the Sharks and Cats respectively. None of the latter two winning teams were able to achieve a four try bonus point. The averages points scored by all six teams in these three games was roughly 50% of the average in the four games so far this year with the new rule interpretations.
Friday, March 5, 2010
SA scrums like Samson after a hair cut
Just as South African back lines finally learn to run straight (advancing to switches and other finesse are for another decade) the forward packs loose their power, like Samson after a haircut.
Once the pride of South African rugby and the fear of all other nations, the SA provincial packs are looking like schooboys agasint me.
In Round 3 the Waratahs destroyed the Bull, and in Round 4 the Brumbies destroyed the Cats, as two examples.
Improved Australian scrums or weakened yarpie scrums? Time will tell.
Once the pride of South African rugby and the fear of all other nations, the SA provincial packs are looking like schooboys agasint me.
In Round 3 the Waratahs destroyed the Bull, and in Round 4 the Brumbies destroyed the Cats, as two examples.
Improved Australian scrums or weakened yarpie scrums? Time will tell.
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
History and winners
A breif summary of winners in Super rugby:
* From 1992, to 2009 - only 6 teams have ever won the competition
* 2 of those so long ago it's a distant memory
* Which leaves us with only 4 winning outfits in the last 10 years
* The NSW Waratahs have not won a thing, in 19 years of Super Rugby. Not the only ones, but as they are the power house financially, politically, demographically and geographically of Australian rugby (and SA and NZ power bases of their times have all produced at least one win), the Australian master plan isn't working - no wonder since they keep basing on the NSW Waratahs....)
* Only 3 of those 6 teams have a 100% win ratio in the big game, the final
* The Brumbies have the poorest win:loss ratio in finals of all teams who have played the finals. even though they deserve credit for going to the finals the second most times of all teans. But no-one remembers who lost....
Super 6
1992 - Queensland (now the Reds)
Super 10
1993 - Transvaal (then the Cats and now the Lions)
1994 - Queensland (now the Reds)
1995 - Queensland (now the Reds)
Super 12
1996 - Blues
1997 - Blues
1998 - Crusaders
1999 - Crusaders
2000 - Crusaders
2001 - Brumbies
2002 - Crusaders
2003 - Blues
2004 - Brumbies
2005 - Crusaders
Super 14
2006 - Crusaders
2007 - Bulls
2008 - Crusaders
2009 - Bulls
2009 -
Team Wins Runner-up
Team Won Runner Up
Crusaders 7 2
Blues 3 1
Brumbies 2 3
Reds 3 0
Bulls 2 0
Lions 1 0
Sharks 0 3
Waratahs 0 2
Highlanders 0 1
Hurricanes 0 1
Chiefs 0 1
Wins by Country
Country Wins Runner-up
New Zealand 10 6
Australia 2 5
South Africa 2 3
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_14#Past_winners
* From 1992, to 2009 - only 6 teams have ever won the competition
* 2 of those so long ago it's a distant memory
* Which leaves us with only 4 winning outfits in the last 10 years
* The NSW Waratahs have not won a thing, in 19 years of Super Rugby. Not the only ones, but as they are the power house financially, politically, demographically and geographically of Australian rugby (and SA and NZ power bases of their times have all produced at least one win), the Australian master plan isn't working - no wonder since they keep basing on the NSW Waratahs....)
* Only 3 of those 6 teams have a 100% win ratio in the big game, the final
* The Brumbies have the poorest win:loss ratio in finals of all teams who have played the finals. even though they deserve credit for going to the finals the second most times of all teans. But no-one remembers who lost....
Super 6
1992 - Queensland (now the Reds)
Super 10
1993 - Transvaal (then the Cats and now the Lions)
1994 - Queensland (now the Reds)
1995 - Queensland (now the Reds)
Super 12
1996 - Blues
1997 - Blues
1998 - Crusaders
1999 - Crusaders
2000 - Crusaders
2001 - Brumbies
2002 - Crusaders
2003 - Blues
2004 - Brumbies
2005 - Crusaders
Super 14
2006 - Crusaders
2007 - Bulls
2008 - Crusaders
2009 - Bulls
2009 -
Team Wins Runner-up
Team Won Runner Up
Crusaders 7 2
Blues 3 1
Brumbies 2 3
Reds 3 0
Bulls 2 0
Lions 1 0
Sharks 0 3
Waratahs 0 2
Highlanders 0 1
Hurricanes 0 1
Chiefs 0 1
Wins by Country
Country Wins Runner-up
New Zealand 10 6
Australia 2 5
South Africa 2 3
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_14#Past_winners
Waratahs scrum smashes the Bulls
I was very impressed with the NSW Waratahs scrum in Round 3 vs the Bulls. Destroyed them. Too early in the competition to judge the Bulls scrum, but traditionally they have been the gold standard.
The scrum coach Michael Foley deserves the credit for this. In the past members of that pack have been the proud owners of highly used roller skates.
The ernomity of this task was not lost on the Sydney Morning Herald Journalist late last year when he wrote:
The former test hooker leaves the Wallabies coaching team after three seasons, during which he has been instrumental in achieving major gains in Australian forward play - to the extent that a pack which was often laughed at is now accepted as being of international standard.
But that challenge could be in the mini-league compared to getting the Waratahs pack sorted out next year, especially as they will be without three vital players - their lineout leader Dan Vickerman, and back-rowers Rocky Elsom and David Lyons.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/opinion/columnists/greg-growden/592444/i-Foley-focused-on-filling-big-gaps-in-Tahs-pack-i
Now all they need to do is become a winning outfit, something they have never been in the 19 odd years of Super Rugby History.
The scrum coach Michael Foley deserves the credit for this. In the past members of that pack have been the proud owners of highly used roller skates.
The ernomity of this task was not lost on the Sydney Morning Herald Journalist late last year when he wrote:
The former test hooker leaves the Wallabies coaching team after three seasons, during which he has been instrumental in achieving major gains in Australian forward play - to the extent that a pack which was often laughed at is now accepted as being of international standard.
But that challenge could be in the mini-league compared to getting the Waratahs pack sorted out next year, especially as they will be without three vital players - their lineout leader Dan Vickerman, and back-rowers Rocky Elsom and David Lyons.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/opinion/columnists/greg-growden/592444/i-Foley-focused-on-filling-big-gaps-in-Tahs-pack-i
Now all they need to do is become a winning outfit, something they have never been in the 19 odd years of Super Rugby History.
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