Injuries as a predictor of the 2010 TriNations Series

I wrote at the end of the 2010 Super 14 Series about my theories/observations linking injury incidence within Australian provincial teams and their log placement.

Let's apply that to the upcoming 2010 Tri-Nations tournament.

This weekend, following Nathan Sharpe's injury in training, the media reported the entire Australian tight five was down to 2nd choice or lower players.

As a rough observation I believe that at about 12 of the starting 15 positions have been changed/disrupted due to injury. That's about 80% injury rate.

Without have the same knowledge of the Springboks or the All Blacks, it appears to me that the Boks have the choice of playing their starting line up, and the Blacks would not be far from this.

So the injury incidence, at a rough glance, over the last 4 wks, would rank from lowest to highest:

1. Spring Boks (lowest)
2. All Blacks
3. Australia (highest)

Will this be the order of the log at the end of the 2010 Tri-Nations tournament?

Aust v Eng 12 Jun 2010

Not sure what was worse - watching Australia scrum or the English back line attack. I don't blame the English forwards from being reluctant to give the ball to their backs. Only challenge is pick and drive from a few meters out is a very predictable thing to defend.

I expect England to do what most touring teams do and drop their performance levels as the tour progresses, for tonights 2nd test. In other words the points differential in Australia's favor to exceed 10 points.

Not that the result gives much indication of how the Wallabies will stand up to a team that not only has 15 players on the field, but one that has 15 players constituting an effective forward pack AND backline.

SA teams to fade out of Top 4 if....

Here's my calls...

* The Stormers may fade out of the Top 4
* If the Blue Bulls lose too many on the Road they will at best make 3 or 4, and from memory no SA team has won the competition from that position, because unless they play on home soil, the travel over here AGAIN to play in the finals is their undoing
* If the SA teams fade as above, that leaves more spaces for AUS and NZ teams.
* If the playoffs occur in AUS or NZ, it raises the chances of the ANZ teams winning compared to if they were being played in SA
* Unlike last year Aust will have 1 if not 2 teams in the Top 4

The next question is - will this translate into a better performance by Aust in the Tri-Nations?

Private investors

Druing the last week the Queensland newspaper ran an article about how the Queensland Reds were investigating the possibility in future of private equity partners.  My understanding is that the 2011 new entrant into Super rugby, the Melbourne Rebels, is the first privatized rugby franchise in Australian rugby.

The Brisbane Broncos showed just how well run and finanically successful a private franchise could be in a competition with the other teams that are not privately run.

I had to laugh at the comment by the Reds administrators. Fifteen years ago I said to a Red player 'The only chance of creating something create in Australian rugby at state level is to have a privately owned team'.

Of course at that time, it was considered inconceiveable by everyone that this could happen. In fact I suspect that the killing of the RWC in 1995 may have had something to do with the fear of the rise of private money in a game run for so long by a board of socially connected and control-oriented people.

SA teams weak means more final chances for Australian teams

When SA has two strong teams in the Super competition, it means less Aussie teams make it to the final 4. When SA have say the Sharks and the Bulls firing, that leaves only 2 spots to fit all Aust and NZ teams into. Sounds simplistic, but this was one of the factors that contribed to no Australian teams making the playoffs in 2009. A point I am sure is not lost on the ARU.

In 2010, with the Sharks strong on paper and weak on the field, only the Bulls are left. What about the Stormers you ask? If they were still in the mix at the end of the regular season it would be almost out of character. They have a habit of slipping out of contention as the season moves to an end. As for the winning the championship - that would be really against history.

Travel fatigue on first game back real for ANZ sides

Despite firm claims I've heard from coaches at national and provincial level, I firmly believe that the trip to South Africa by Australian and New Zealand provincial teams, if not handled properly, results in fatigued performances on the first game back home minimum.

Not to overlook the cost of failing to manage the training when the Australian teams are in SA - their poor win/loss record in SA speaks for itself - a discussion for another day.

Round 4 in this years Super 14 Competiton against confirmed my this theory - in fact is it is obvious now that even the commentators make loose mention of it. After participating in and observing Super rugby for nearly 20 years, I don't need to see any more evidence. Apparently the coaches do....

The Chiefs lost at home to the Reds and failed to get a 4 try bonus point. The Waratahs and the Brumbies both scraped a win at home against the Sharks and Cats respectively. None of the latter two winning teams were able to achieve a four try bonus point. The averages points scored by all six teams in these three games was roughly 50% of the average in the four games so far this year with the new rule interpretations.

SA scrums like Samson after a hair cut

Just as South African back lines finally learn to run straight (advancing to switches and other finesse are for another decade) the forward packs loose their power, like Samson after a haircut.

Once the pride of South African rugby and the fear of all other nations, the SA provincial packs are looking like schooboys agasint me.

In Round 3 the Waratahs destroyed the Bull, and in Round 4 the Brumbies destroyed the Cats, as two examples.

Improved Australian scrums or weakened yarpie scrums? Time will tell.

ARU and the QRU

Announced today in the Australian papers, the ARU rescue package and their increased 'involvement' in the decision making within Queensland Rugby. Mmmm.

Guess it means one less step in the process - tt used to be the ARU had to threaten to rehold funding if the QRU didn't act in obeyance of their wishes - now than can just say no.

Two down, 2 to go. The only escape now will be full privatization, something I talked about over 10 years ago. The Rebels may be in that model, and it is inevitable. Just a matter of when.

History and winners

A breif summary of winners in Super rugby:

* From 1992, to 2009 - only 6 teams have ever won the competition
* 2 of those so long ago it's a distant memory
* Which leaves us with only 4 winning outfits in the last 10 years
* The NSW Waratahs have not won a thing, in 19 years of Super Rugby. Not the only ones, but as they are the power house financially, politically, demographically and geographically of Australian rugby (and SA and NZ power bases of their times have all produced at least one win), the Australian master plan isn't working - no wonder since they keep basing on the NSW Waratahs....)
* Only 3 of those 6 teams have a 100% win ratio in the big game, the final
* The Brumbies have the poorest win:loss ratio in finals of all teams who have played the finals. even though they deserve credit for going to the finals the second most times of all teans. But no-one remembers who lost....

Super 6

 1992 - Queensland (now the Reds)

Super 10

1993 - Transvaal (then the Cats and now the Lions)
1994 - Queensland (now the Reds)
1995 - Queensland (now the Reds)

Super 12

1996 - Blues
1997 - Blues
1998 - Crusaders
1999 - Crusaders
2000 - Crusaders
2001 - Brumbies
2002 - Crusaders
2003 - Blues
2004 - Brumbies
2005 - Crusaders

Super 14

2006 - Crusaders
2007 - Bulls
2008 - Crusaders
2009 - Bulls
2009 -

Team Wins Runner-up

Team    Won   Runner Up

Crusaders    7      2
Blues           3      1
Brumbies     2     3
Reds            3     0
Bulls           2      0
Lions          1      0

Sharks         0     3
Waratahs     0     2
Highlanders 0    1
Hurricanes   0    1
Chiefs          0    1

Wins by Country

Country         Wins    Runner-up

New Zealand 10         6
Australia        2           5
South Africa  2           3




http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_14#Past_winners

Looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane...

The saying looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane, has great application in rugby. The sad reality (or at least my reality) is that looking good on the posing stage or in your younger brothers t-shirt or playing jersey has no correlation with success on the field in rugby.

Tell that to the rugby players. More importantly, tell that to the physical preparation coaches. For many of them, the ability to create hypertrophy in their charges is their high point, the exhaustion of the skill set.

It's a tragic trend. One that started a few decades ago in America, accentuated when bodybuildling magazine published adds with the bodybuilders wearing the clothing of a variety of athletes.

American athletes have had the disease of training to look like Tarzan (a bodybuilder) and performing (on the real world stage, not the domestic 'World Championship' series) like Jane.

In the 1980s and 1990s I gave very little rein to players wanting to buff their guns or their chest. There is plenty of time after retirement from competition rugby. Oh, and a minor point - there are more important things to do to enhance performance.

Now for the last few years in Australia you couldn't board a Qantas jet without seeing a picture of a rugby players bulging biceps, and by now every kid in Australia who plays or wants to play rugby (and with the way the game has been managed in this country thats an endangered speicies) would now know the keys to success in rugby - look like Tarzan.

In the 1970s and early 80's no-one did strength training in rugby. By the late 1980s only the most self-absorbed chose to build Adonis like physiques for their emotional needs.  As the 1990s progressed I held back the flood gates. But as 2000 rolled around, the bodybuilding methods become the standard fare.

So from being the best trialthletes in the 1990s, the Australian rugby players are now the best bodybuilders in World Rugby.

Pity about the rugby scoreboard....