'Are the Reds' the real deal?' asked the butcher.
'I don't know', I said. 'Ask me that in a year or two - they are in their honeymoon year.'
The first year under a new coach is what I call the honeymoon year. Everything is great, everyone's happy. Year two is a 'Settling' year, and if there are cracks they begin to appear towards the end of year 2 and become more apparent in year 3, the 'Reality' year.
The last Australian team to win a Super Rugby Championship, the Brumbies in 2004, did so in the 1st year of a new coaching cycle.
Moving up the ladder board substantially in the first year of new coaches cycle gives everyone a warm feeling and enhances the new coaches position when negotiating their contract in the latter stage of year 2 (ironcially they typically get signed up for a new term before the reality year 3 happens!)
One thing we can draw upon is the coaches pattern. McKenzie is 0 from 5 for Super Rugby Championships, although his former team was in the playoffs, and he made the finals quite a few times. So all things being equal, this could be repeated. Every year that goes and a coach does not win a championship, the lower the chances of them ever winning one. If a coach is aware of this, it must feel like a noose tightening around their neck. Winning coaches usually win early in their career, and consistantly.
However a challenge, rarely recognized, with finishing up too high on the ladder in year one is the pressure it places on year 2. The best long term outcome is a progressive and continual movement up the ladder in a multi-year plan.
Either way, each years final ladder result presents the opportunity to draw a trend graph.
One thing i am sure of for this year? The Western Force have taken on the Reds role as the Australian team whipping boys of the 2010 season, and will finish the lowest ranked Australian team.
The question that remains for the decision makers in Queensland Rugby - can the Reds win a championship under the current coach? Well the Reds are one of only 6 teams to have ever won Super Rugby, but is was a long time ago now. And the Coach has not won one yet. Can they collectively re-shape this? It will take something special. Even though to coaches take major credit for championship wins, I suggest if you look deeper you find stronger correlations or contributors. Have the Reds got this in the playing or support team?
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment