Injuries correlate with team success

Back in the early 1990s I tested my theory that the incidence and severity of injuries in a rugby team is inversely correlated with team success i.e. the more injuries you have, the lower down the competition ladder you finish.

I tested that theory and confirmed the hypothesis.  The Brumbies noted this and intentially, with my support, sought to replicate this in the second half of the 1990s and the early 2000s.  With success.

In 2010, I suggest that this theory is borne out again in at least the four Australian team - that their position on the ladder at the end of the 2010 Super 14 season will be inversely correlated with their injury stats.

First it was the Force to suffer a 'horrific injury run'. They will finish the lowest of the Australian team this  year.

Then it was the Brumbies to suffer a 'horrific injury run'.  They are currently sitting second bottom of the four Australian team, with three games left to change that.

The Waratahs have not attracted this level of 'horrific injury run', nor have the Reds. They sit 2 and 1 of the four Australian teams currently respectively. No surprise here.

The conspiracy of injury will ensure that few if any pick up on this pattern, and few if any learn from this and change their approach. The cycle will continue and the medical, therapy and pharamcuetical industries will continue to be the primary beneficiaries.

But we are so strong in the gym....

The tragic evidence of the adoption of the US sports and cultural mentality...

In a quiet moment of the Round 8 game between the Western Force and the Blue Bulls, a commentator made mention of his conversations prior ot the game with Western Force players proudly sharing that some of the team achieved PBs in the gym that week....

With a 0-7 win loss to that time, and last on the ladder, the last thing anyone interested in the Force's success would want to hear about is anything that has nothing to do with the scoreboard. They may as as well boast about their ability to play marbles....

I don't need any more evidence to support my theory that there is no correlation between the load lifted in the gym and the scoreboard (and I introduced strength training to more rugby players than any other individual in the history of the game) - and sadly, no amount of evidence of the absence of this correlation will help the limited intelelligence (when it comes to training) of so many connected to the game, including those who actually do influence the training....

Waratahs v Force - 2 tired teams or tradition?

The Round 6 clash between the Force and the Waratahs was a close, low scoring, flat game.  The commentators put it down to tradition, with the last 4 of their games being decided by 5 points or less.

I know another tradition - the Waratahs fading anytime from half-way onwards in the season. Now since Coach McKenzie was the first coach to stifle that tradition after it held for over a decade, they do seem less prone. But I am not convinced it's gone away.

As for the Perth. I have said enough about that - they define fatigue, by their fades, low win rate, and exhausted faces.

'Are the Reds the real deal now?' asked the butcher

'Are the Reds' the real deal?' asked the butcher.

'I don't know', I said.  'Ask me that in a year or two - they are in their honeymoon year.'

The first year under a new coach is what I call the honeymoon year. Everything is great, everyone's happy.  Year two is a 'Settling' year, and if there are cracks they begin to appear towards the end of year 2 and become more apparent in year 3, the 'Reality' year.

The last Australian team to win a Super Rugby Championship, the Brumbies in 2004,  did so in the 1st year of a new coaching cycle.

Moving up the ladder board substantially in the first year of new coaches cycle gives everyone a warm feeling and enhances the new coaches position when negotiating their contract in the latter stage of year 2 (ironcially they typically get signed up for a new term before the reality year 3 happens!)

One thing we can draw upon is the coaches pattern.  McKenzie is 0 from 5 for Super Rugby Championships, although his former team was in the playoffs, and he made the finals quite a few times. So all things being equal, this could be repeated. Every year that goes and a coach does not win a championship, the lower the chances of them ever winning one. If a coach is aware of this, it must feel like a noose tightening around their neck.  Winning coaches usually win early in their career, and consistantly.

However a challenge, rarely recognized, with finishing up too high on the ladder in year one is the pressure it places on year 2.  The best long term outcome is a progressive and continual movement up the ladder in a multi-year plan.

Either way, each years final ladder result presents the opportunity to draw a trend graph.

One thing i am sure of for this year? The Western Force have taken on the Reds role as the Australian team whipping boys of the 2010 season, and will finish the lowest ranked Australian team.

The question that remains for the decision makers in Queensland Rugby - can the Reds win a championship under the current coach?  Well the Reds are one of only 6 teams to have ever won Super Rugby, but is was a long time ago now. And the Coach has not won one yet. Can they collectively re-shape this? It will take something special. Even though to coaches take major credit for championship wins, I suggest if you look deeper you find stronger correlations or contributors. Have the Reds got this in the playing or support team?

Chiefs are looking good

For so many years the whipping boys of NZ rugby, the Waikato Chiefs are looking good. 2-0 from their  South African road trip and a win on the way home against the Western Force. They can make the Top 4 if they can maintain this. At least the top 2 of the NZ teams.

I feel sorry for the Western Force

It must be tough coming out week in week out knowing you are doing it tough. Year after year. I give these guys credit for coming out of the sheds.

I would be suprised if their coach lasted the season. He certainly has outlasted the team performance.