Reflections pre final

The Super 14 2010 season final has been played, and before I sit to watch the replay, without knowing the outcome, I share the following reflections.

Of the four teams that made the finals from the end of regular season log -

1st  Bulls
2nd Stormers
3rd Waratahs
4th  Crusaders

Only 2 of these teams have an historical expectancy of winning, and they - the Crusaders and Bulls - played each other in the semi-final, meaning only 1 (the Bulls as it turned out) could progress.

The other semi was played between two teams that do not have this historical expectantcy of winning.

The Bulls and the Stormers met overnight in Soweto, SA, for the title of 2010 Super 14 Champion.

Bulls to win. No reshaping of history in relation to teams who have won a Super competition during the last 18 or so years.

History and winners

A breif summary of winners in Super rugby:

* From 1992, to 2009 - only 6 teams have ever won the competition
* 2 of those so long ago it's a distant memory
* Which leaves us with only 4 winning outfits in the last 10 years
* The NSW Waratahs have not won a thing, in 19 years of Super Rugby. Not the only ones, but as they are the power house financially, politically, demographically and geographically of Australian rugby (and SA and NZ power bases of their times have all produced at least one win), the Australian master plan isn't working - no wonder since they keep basing on the NSW Waratahs....)
* Only 3 of those 6 teams have a 100% win ratio in the big game, the final
* The Brumbies have the poorest win:loss ratio in finals of all teams who have played the finals. even though they deserve credit for going to the finals the second most times of all teans. But no-one remembers who lost....

Super 6

 1992 - Queensland (now the Reds)

Super 10

1993 - Transvaal (then the Cats and now the Lions)
1994 - Queensland (now the Reds)
1995 - Queensland (now the Reds)

Super 12

1996 - Blues
1997 - Blues
1998 - Crusaders
1999 - Crusaders
2000 - Crusaders
2001 - Brumbies
2002 - Crusaders
2003 - Blues
2004 - Brumbies
2005 - Crusaders

Super 14

2006 - Crusaders
2007 - Bulls
2008 - Crusaders
2009 - Bulls
2009 -

Team Wins Runner-up

Team    Won   Runner Up

Crusaders    7      2
Blues           3      1
Brumbies     2     3
Reds            3     0
Bulls           2      0
Lions          1      0

Sharks         0     3
Waratahs     0     2
Highlanders 0    1
Hurricanes   0    1
Chiefs          0    1

Wins by Country

Country         Wins    Runner-up

New Zealand 10         6
Australia        2           5
South Africa  2           3




http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_14#Past_winners

Its been coming for so long - Reds beat Crusaders

Even though the Reds haven't beaten the Crusaders for some 10 years, this results been building up, at least when playing in Brisbane.  The Crusaders have been so good for so long I believe they have a challenge raising their urgency when playing team with lesser recent performance histories. And if the game gets away on them, they don't currently have the magic needed to get back to win. It's been coming.

Reds - 41 v Crusaders (NZ) - 20

Home wins rare in Round 1

After Round 1 only 1 team has won at home, with the Crusaders beating the Highlanders.

Crusaders (NZ) - 32 v Highlanders (NZ) - 17

Interesting start.

Cantebury Crusaders not likely to support the punters

Apparently Cantebury Crusaders are tipped by the punters or similar to be a dominant force in the Top 4 or something like that.

I don't think so. They can make the Top 4, but I believe their incredible period of dominance is coming to end.  They have been playing complacent catch up rugby, winning in the final quarter, for a long time now. Nice if you can do it. But not sustainable.

Now they are going to be spending more time wondering where it's gone wrong. And of course, the absence of McGraw at the start of the season doesn't help.

Their main concern now however is spending too much time looking over their shoulder and all around trying to work out where their mojo has gone.