'Are the Reds' the real deal?' asked the butcher.
'I don't know', I said. 'Ask me that in a year or two - they are in their honeymoon year.'
The first year under a new coach is what I call the honeymoon year. Everything is great, everyone's happy. Year two is a 'Settling' year, and if there are cracks they begin to appear towards the end of year 2 and become more apparent in year 3, the 'Reality' year.
The last Australian team to win a Super Rugby Championship, the Brumbies in 2004, did so in the 1st year of a new coaching cycle.
Moving up the ladder board substantially in the first year of new coaches cycle gives everyone a warm feeling and enhances the new coaches position when negotiating their contract in the latter stage of year 2 (ironcially they typically get signed up for a new term before the reality year 3 happens!)
One thing we can draw upon is the coaches pattern. McKenzie is 0 from 5 for Super Rugby Championships, although his former team was in the playoffs, and he made the finals quite a few times. So all things being equal, this could be repeated. Every year that goes and a coach does not win a championship, the lower the chances of them ever winning one. If a coach is aware of this, it must feel like a noose tightening around their neck. Winning coaches usually win early in their career, and consistantly.
However a challenge, rarely recognized, with finishing up too high on the ladder in year one is the pressure it places on year 2. The best long term outcome is a progressive and continual movement up the ladder in a multi-year plan.
Either way, each years final ladder result presents the opportunity to draw a trend graph.
One thing i am sure of for this year? The Western Force have taken on the Reds role as the Australian team whipping boys of the 2010 season, and will finish the lowest ranked Australian team.
The question that remains for the decision makers in Queensland Rugby - can the Reds win a championship under the current coach? Well the Reds are one of only 6 teams to have ever won Super Rugby, but is was a long time ago now. And the Coach has not won one yet. Can they collectively re-shape this? It will take something special. Even though to coaches take major credit for championship wins, I suggest if you look deeper you find stronger correlations or contributors. Have the Reds got this in the playing or support team?
Showing posts with label Support - Coaches. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Support - Coaches. Show all posts
Monday, March 15, 2010
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
Reds are rebuilding - again
I've lost count of the number of different coaches that the Queensland Reds have had, or the player turnover. But unlike most, I don't blame either. They don't pick themselves. The forgotten yet most responsible parties are the administrators and boards.
This time the Reds have had a bit of a board and adminstrator clean out as well as a coach clean out. Can 'Slaughter' fix it? Bob the builder himself would be challenged.
And how will Coach McKenzie fair? Tough gig, even for a coach who has shown he is above average.
What I want to know are where are all those administrators (national and state) who drove Queensland rugby into the ground over the last decade. Probably promoted within rugby....
This time the Reds have had a bit of a board and adminstrator clean out as well as a coach clean out. Can 'Slaughter' fix it? Bob the builder himself would be challenged.
And how will Coach McKenzie fair? Tough gig, even for a coach who has shown he is above average.
What I want to know are where are all those administrators (national and state) who drove Queensland rugby into the ground over the last decade. Probably promoted within rugby....
They've lost that winning feeling
Reds - 28 v Waratahs - 30 Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
The biggest challenge facing the Queensland Reds is losing the loser mindset. Not suggesting they aren't trying, but when you get familiar with losing, it's not easy expecting to win.
This game reminded me of the first round in 1998 - Queensland scored a try within minutes of the game against Otago Highlanders at the House of Pain. And finished with 3 tries to one - but still just lost. And this was after only two seasons on the slide, especially 1997, finishing 10th out of 12 teams.
Queensland now has over a decade of being on the slide. That's tough to change back to a winning culture and will take time. Whilst this is happening they don't need any destabilizing in the process or any move forward will be sabatagued. With a number of powerful parties keen to stick the pin into the Reds ballon, they have battles on many fronts to fight.
The biggest challenge facing the Queensland Reds is losing the loser mindset. Not suggesting they aren't trying, but when you get familiar with losing, it's not easy expecting to win.
This game reminded me of the first round in 1998 - Queensland scored a try within minutes of the game against Otago Highlanders at the House of Pain. And finished with 3 tries to one - but still just lost. And this was after only two seasons on the slide, especially 1997, finishing 10th out of 12 teams.
Queensland now has over a decade of being on the slide. That's tough to change back to a winning culture and will take time. Whilst this is happening they don't need any destabilizing in the process or any move forward will be sabatagued. With a number of powerful parties keen to stick the pin into the Reds ballon, they have battles on many fronts to fight.
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