The fading point

Each session I look for a point at which a team fades and fails to recovery. The best example in the 2010 Super 14 season so far, with 3 games to go, has been the Chiefs.

A top 4 team for 3 games, they have not recovered from their loss at home to the Reds. If anything they have faded further. That's a very early season fade, and their ability to recover with so many games left may have many insiders scratching their head.

The most spectacular fade award historically and perenially would go to NSW. Until Coach McKenzie broke the mould, probably by applying training volumes used by Queensland during the 1990s, which for a very brief period Coach Dwyer used (1994 domestic tests vs. South Africa).

Now it appears Coach McKenzie is using these same methods on the originating team, as coach of the Queensland Reds. At least with the Reds he has a team that has been a winner, unlike NSW who as a provincial team have not won a championship since the introduction of Super Rugby in 1991 - that's nearly 20 years of failing to win the title.

One of the greatest tests of a teams workload and related recovery is their ability to win their first game home after being on the road.  The Brumbies did it but they were playing the low ranked Cats. Queensland did it with a top of the table clash against the Bulls. The Chiefs failed this test, not they they were the only ones to in the 2010 season.

Brumbies not the brumbies of old

From Round 4 when the Brumbies failed to achieve the 4th try bonus despite spending approx. 7 1/2 mins in the low ranking South African Cats 25 metre zone, it's been apparent that the Brumbies lack the attacking skills of the Brumbies of old. No surprise when you consider the ability of Larkham to get over the advantage line and shred opposing back line defences.

What they have gained in up front set piece power they have lost in back line tactical superiority.

Travel fatigue on first game back real for ANZ sides

Despite firm claims I've heard from coaches at national and provincial level, I firmly believe that the trip to South Africa by Australian and New Zealand provincial teams, if not handled properly, results in fatigued performances on the first game back home minimum.

Not to overlook the cost of failing to manage the training when the Australian teams are in SA - their poor win/loss record in SA speaks for itself - a discussion for another day.

Round 4 in this years Super 14 Competiton against confirmed my this theory - in fact is it is obvious now that even the commentators make loose mention of it. After participating in and observing Super rugby for nearly 20 years, I don't need to see any more evidence. Apparently the coaches do....

The Chiefs lost at home to the Reds and failed to get a 4 try bonus point. The Waratahs and the Brumbies both scraped a win at home against the Sharks and Cats respectively. None of the latter two winning teams were able to achieve a four try bonus point. The averages points scored by all six teams in these three games was roughly 50% of the average in the four games so far this year with the new rule interpretations.

SA scrums like Samson after a hair cut

Just as South African back lines finally learn to run straight (advancing to switches and other finesse are for another decade) the forward packs loose their power, like Samson after a haircut.

Once the pride of South African rugby and the fear of all other nations, the SA provincial packs are looking like schooboys agasint me.

In Round 3 the Waratahs destroyed the Bull, and in Round 4 the Brumbies destroyed the Cats, as two examples.

Improved Australian scrums or weakened yarpie scrums? Time will tell.