Injuries as a predictor of the 2010 TriNations Series

I wrote at the end of the 2010 Super 14 Series about my theories/observations linking injury incidence within Australian provincial teams and their log placement.

Let's apply that to the upcoming 2010 Tri-Nations tournament.

This weekend, following Nathan Sharpe's injury in training, the media reported the entire Australian tight five was down to 2nd choice or lower players.

As a rough observation I believe that at about 12 of the starting 15 positions have been changed/disrupted due to injury. That's about 80% injury rate.

Without have the same knowledge of the Springboks or the All Blacks, it appears to me that the Boks have the choice of playing their starting line up, and the Blacks would not be far from this.

So the injury incidence, at a rough glance, over the last 4 wks, would rank from lowest to highest:

1. Spring Boks (lowest)
2. All Blacks
3. Australia (highest)

Will this be the order of the log at the end of the 2010 Tri-Nations tournament?