Back in the early 1990s I tested my theory that the incidence and severity of injuries in a rugby team is inversely correlated with team success i.e. the more injuries you have, the lower down the competition ladder you finish.
I tested that theory and confirmed the hypothesis. The Brumbies noted this and intentially, with my support, sought to replicate this in the second half of the 1990s and the early 2000s. With success.
In 2010, I suggest that this theory is borne out again in at least the four Australian team - that their position on the ladder at the end of the 2010 Super 14 season will be inversely correlated with their injury stats.
First it was the Force to suffer a 'horrific injury run'. They will finish the lowest of the Australian team this year.
Then it was the Brumbies to suffer a 'horrific injury run'. They are currently sitting second bottom of the four Australian team, with three games left to change that.
The Waratahs have not attracted this level of 'horrific injury run', nor have the Reds. They sit 2 and 1 of the four Australian teams currently respectively. No surprise here.
The conspiracy of injury will ensure that few if any pick up on this pattern, and few if any learn from this and change their approach. The cycle will continue and the medical, therapy and pharamcuetical industries will continue to be the primary beneficiaries.
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
The Red's Dream Draw in 2010
Let's go through the dream draw:
Rd 1 vs NSW Waratahs - home game, giving them a much greater chance of winning.
Rd 2 vs Crusaders - home game and early season - the best time to play a typically slow to get going team like this
Rd 3 vs Blues - home game against another Kiwi team, giving them a much greater chance of winning
The worst way to start the season is
1. play on the road
2. play South African team in SA - as they are better earlier in the season, compared with NZ teams that are more likely to be a bit off pace in the first few games.
So the first 3 games were heaven-sent, ideal for a team that needed to get confidence back. The fact that they were 1-2 win / loss was only a result of their initial dis-belief in themselves. This was a dream draw to start, and their 2 close losses gave them enough confidence to build upon.
Rd 4 vs Chiefs - played away, but against a team coming back from SA. Away games don't get much better.
Rd 5 vs Force - at home, against the lowest ranked team - doesn't get much easier than this.
Rd 6 - bye.
So the second 25% of the regular season games again are based on a draw that doesn't get any better.
Now for the third 25% of the regular season:
Rd 7 vs Cheetahs - an away game against a team competing with the Cats to be the worst SA team this season.
Rd 8 vs Sharks - an away game that most years would have been tough, but this season this team has struggled to win anything and is sitting as low on the table as the Cats and Cheetahs.
Rd 9 vs Cats - an away game against a team that will probably not win a game this season.
So the third 25% of the regular season games become the 3rd block of 3 games that are nothing short of heaven sent.
Now for the final 4 games:
Rd 10 vs Bulls - at home, but tough because first game back from a road trip - but this is the Bulls 4th and final road game, one they may never have won (i.e. last game on the ANZ road trip) - so for a game against the Bulls it doesn't get much better - Reds at home, Bulls last game on tour.
Rd 11 vs Stormers - at home, with a team peforming better on the road this season than the Bulls but still better than playing them at their home. The Stormers 3rd game on the road.
Rd 12 vs Brumbies - away, which is tough [yet to be played]
Rd 13 vs Hurricanes - away - tought but not as tough as say playing a strong SA team early in the year at altitude [yet to be played]. If the Hurricanes are out of final contentions by then their committment to winning the game will be lower
Rd 14 vs Highlanders - at home, against the lowest ranking NZ team [yet to be played] - should be a given
So the Reds had 9 games to get in the groove, before having really challenging games. Ideal draw for a team, especially one rebuilding their self-belief.
In summary the best draw for an Australian team is one where you:
1. have home games to get your season rolling
2. play NZ teams early in the season, especially Cantebury. They bare not ususally at their best yet,
3. play SA teams at lower altidues when you do tour SA
4. play teams from colder climates at home earlier in the season where you have heat acclimatization advantage
5. play the weakest SA team on your road trip to SA
6. play the strongest SA teams late in the season, at home, and late in their road trip schedule
7. play the Brumbies at home early in the season so you have a heat adaptation advantage AND their unique winter dew is not a factor
Look familiar? Sumes up the Reds drawer (except for one point).
On the flip side, the toughest draw for an Australian team is one where you:
1. go on the road to SA up front
2. play the strongest SA teams early in the season at their home grounds
3. play SA teams at altidue
4. play teams from colder climates at home later in the season where you lose your heat acclimatization advantage
5. play the NZ teams later in the draw, especially Cantebury
6. play the SA teams at home early in their road trips
7. play the Brumbies away late in the season where you don't have a heat adaptation advantage AND their unique winter dew IS a factor
Rd 1 vs NSW Waratahs - home game, giving them a much greater chance of winning.
Rd 2 vs Crusaders - home game and early season - the best time to play a typically slow to get going team like this
Rd 3 vs Blues - home game against another Kiwi team, giving them a much greater chance of winning
The worst way to start the season is
1. play on the road
2. play South African team in SA - as they are better earlier in the season, compared with NZ teams that are more likely to be a bit off pace in the first few games.
So the first 3 games were heaven-sent, ideal for a team that needed to get confidence back. The fact that they were 1-2 win / loss was only a result of their initial dis-belief in themselves. This was a dream draw to start, and their 2 close losses gave them enough confidence to build upon.
Rd 4 vs Chiefs - played away, but against a team coming back from SA. Away games don't get much better.
Rd 5 vs Force - at home, against the lowest ranked team - doesn't get much easier than this.
Rd 6 - bye.
So the second 25% of the regular season games again are based on a draw that doesn't get any better.
Now for the third 25% of the regular season:
Rd 7 vs Cheetahs - an away game against a team competing with the Cats to be the worst SA team this season.
Rd 8 vs Sharks - an away game that most years would have been tough, but this season this team has struggled to win anything and is sitting as low on the table as the Cats and Cheetahs.
Rd 9 vs Cats - an away game against a team that will probably not win a game this season.
So the third 25% of the regular season games become the 3rd block of 3 games that are nothing short of heaven sent.
Now for the final 4 games:
Rd 10 vs Bulls - at home, but tough because first game back from a road trip - but this is the Bulls 4th and final road game, one they may never have won (i.e. last game on the ANZ road trip) - so for a game against the Bulls it doesn't get much better - Reds at home, Bulls last game on tour.
Rd 11 vs Stormers - at home, with a team peforming better on the road this season than the Bulls but still better than playing them at their home. The Stormers 3rd game on the road.
Rd 12 vs Brumbies - away, which is tough [yet to be played]
Rd 13 vs Hurricanes - away - tought but not as tough as say playing a strong SA team early in the year at altitude [yet to be played]. If the Hurricanes are out of final contentions by then their committment to winning the game will be lower
Rd 14 vs Highlanders - at home, against the lowest ranking NZ team [yet to be played] - should be a given
So the Reds had 9 games to get in the groove, before having really challenging games. Ideal draw for a team, especially one rebuilding their self-belief.
In summary the best draw for an Australian team is one where you:
1. have home games to get your season rolling
2. play NZ teams early in the season, especially Cantebury. They bare not ususally at their best yet,
3. play SA teams at lower altidues when you do tour SA
4. play teams from colder climates at home earlier in the season where you have heat acclimatization advantage
5. play the weakest SA team on your road trip to SA
6. play the strongest SA teams late in the season, at home, and late in their road trip schedule
7. play the Brumbies at home early in the season so you have a heat adaptation advantage AND their unique winter dew is not a factor
Look familiar? Sumes up the Reds drawer (except for one point).
On the flip side, the toughest draw for an Australian team is one where you:
1. go on the road to SA up front
2. play the strongest SA teams early in the season at their home grounds
3. play SA teams at altidue
4. play teams from colder climates at home later in the season where you lose your heat acclimatization advantage
5. play the NZ teams later in the draw, especially Cantebury
6. play the SA teams at home early in their road trips
7. play the Brumbies away late in the season where you don't have a heat adaptation advantage AND their unique winter dew IS a factor
The Reds can win the 2010 Super Title
The Queensland Reds can win the 2010 Super 14 title. With only 3 games to go, they sit equal 2nd on points with 2 other teams, and 4 on for and againsts.
In fact, this could be their best chance of winning because:
1. They have had a dream draw in 2010.
2. They are arguably the freshest team in the competition
3. They have the lowest injury rate of Australian teams
4. Other teams are still not fully prepared to treat them with the respect they deserve as 2009 cellar dwellars.
This will change in 2011 because:
1. They may not have the dream draw
2. I predict their injury rate may rise in 2011 and 2012.
3. Other teams will have planned their years in advance with the Reds as a tough game to win.
In fact, this could be their best chance of winning because:
1. They have had a dream draw in 2010.
2. They are arguably the freshest team in the competition
3. They have the lowest injury rate of Australian teams
4. Other teams are still not fully prepared to treat them with the respect they deserve as 2009 cellar dwellars.
This will change in 2011 because:
1. They may not have the dream draw
2. I predict their injury rate may rise in 2011 and 2012.
3. Other teams will have planned their years in advance with the Reds as a tough game to win.
The fading point
Each session I look for a point at which a team fades and fails to recovery. The best example in the 2010 Super 14 season so far, with 3 games to go, has been the Chiefs.
A top 4 team for 3 games, they have not recovered from their loss at home to the Reds. If anything they have faded further. That's a very early season fade, and their ability to recover with so many games left may have many insiders scratching their head.
The most spectacular fade award historically and perenially would go to NSW. Until Coach McKenzie broke the mould, probably by applying training volumes used by Queensland during the 1990s, which for a very brief period Coach Dwyer used (1994 domestic tests vs. South Africa).
Now it appears Coach McKenzie is using these same methods on the originating team, as coach of the Queensland Reds. At least with the Reds he has a team that has been a winner, unlike NSW who as a provincial team have not won a championship since the introduction of Super Rugby in 1991 - that's nearly 20 years of failing to win the title.
One of the greatest tests of a teams workload and related recovery is their ability to win their first game home after being on the road. The Brumbies did it but they were playing the low ranked Cats. Queensland did it with a top of the table clash against the Bulls. The Chiefs failed this test, not they they were the only ones to in the 2010 season.
A top 4 team for 3 games, they have not recovered from their loss at home to the Reds. If anything they have faded further. That's a very early season fade, and their ability to recover with so many games left may have many insiders scratching their head.
The most spectacular fade award historically and perenially would go to NSW. Until Coach McKenzie broke the mould, probably by applying training volumes used by Queensland during the 1990s, which for a very brief period Coach Dwyer used (1994 domestic tests vs. South Africa).
Now it appears Coach McKenzie is using these same methods on the originating team, as coach of the Queensland Reds. At least with the Reds he has a team that has been a winner, unlike NSW who as a provincial team have not won a championship since the introduction of Super Rugby in 1991 - that's nearly 20 years of failing to win the title.
One of the greatest tests of a teams workload and related recovery is their ability to win their first game home after being on the road. The Brumbies did it but they were playing the low ranked Cats. Queensland did it with a top of the table clash against the Bulls. The Chiefs failed this test, not they they were the only ones to in the 2010 season.
Brumbies not the brumbies of old
From Round 4 when the Brumbies failed to achieve the 4th try bonus despite spending approx. 7 1/2 mins in the low ranking South African Cats 25 metre zone, it's been apparent that the Brumbies lack the attacking skills of the Brumbies of old. No surprise when you consider the ability of Larkham to get over the advantage line and shred opposing back line defences.
What they have gained in up front set piece power they have lost in back line tactical superiority.
What they have gained in up front set piece power they have lost in back line tactical superiority.
Monday, April 5, 2010
SA teams to fade out of Top 4 if....
Here's my calls...
* The Stormers may fade out of the Top 4
* If the Blue Bulls lose too many on the Road they will at best make 3 or 4, and from memory no SA team has won the competition from that position, because unless they play on home soil, the travel over here AGAIN to play in the finals is their undoing
* If the SA teams fade as above, that leaves more spaces for AUS and NZ teams.
* If the playoffs occur in AUS or NZ, it raises the chances of the ANZ teams winning compared to if they were being played in SA
* Unlike last year Aust will have 1 if not 2 teams in the Top 4
The next question is - will this translate into a better performance by Aust in the Tri-Nations?
* The Stormers may fade out of the Top 4
* If the Blue Bulls lose too many on the Road they will at best make 3 or 4, and from memory no SA team has won the competition from that position, because unless they play on home soil, the travel over here AGAIN to play in the finals is their undoing
* If the SA teams fade as above, that leaves more spaces for AUS and NZ teams.
* If the playoffs occur in AUS or NZ, it raises the chances of the ANZ teams winning compared to if they were being played in SA
* Unlike last year Aust will have 1 if not 2 teams in the Top 4
The next question is - will this translate into a better performance by Aust in the Tri-Nations?
Private investors
Druing the last week the Queensland newspaper ran an article about how the Queensland Reds were investigating the possibility in future of private equity partners. My understanding is that the 2011 new entrant into Super rugby, the Melbourne Rebels, is the first privatized rugby franchise in Australian rugby.
The Brisbane Broncos showed just how well run and finanically successful a private franchise could be in a competition with the other teams that are not privately run.
I had to laugh at the comment by the Reds administrators. Fifteen years ago I said to a Red player 'The only chance of creating something create in Australian rugby at state level is to have a privately owned team'.
Of course at that time, it was considered inconceiveable by everyone that this could happen. In fact I suspect that the killing of the RWC in 1995 may have had something to do with the fear of the rise of private money in a game run for so long by a board of socially connected and control-oriented people.
The Brisbane Broncos showed just how well run and finanically successful a private franchise could be in a competition with the other teams that are not privately run.
I had to laugh at the comment by the Reds administrators. Fifteen years ago I said to a Red player 'The only chance of creating something create in Australian rugby at state level is to have a privately owned team'.
Of course at that time, it was considered inconceiveable by everyone that this could happen. In fact I suspect that the killing of the RWC in 1995 may have had something to do with the fear of the rise of private money in a game run for so long by a board of socially connected and control-oriented people.
He is the least fit looking....
During the Round 9 game between the NSW Waratahs and the SA provincial team the Cheetahs, one of the commentators described a Cheetahs prop as being the 'least fit looking....' etc etc. This was after a mention of the fact that he has missed no games this year or similar.
Comments about how someone 'looks fit' do not help the cause of physical and athletic preparation. At one time i am sure the commentator (an ex-player) knew better than this, but unforunately he along with the majmority get caught up in the mainstream misconception that you can judge a persons 'fitness' to succeed in sport by their looks.
This only results in mis-guided focus on low body fat and bulging biceps, neither which are in my opinion correlated with success on the scoreboard.
Reminds me of the before and after photos used by the Wallabies conditioner in the lead up to the 1999 world cup. I thought such dumb and misguided interpretations of preparedness for sport were limited to bodybuilding magazines....
Comments about how someone 'looks fit' do not help the cause of physical and athletic preparation. At one time i am sure the commentator (an ex-player) knew better than this, but unforunately he along with the majmority get caught up in the mainstream misconception that you can judge a persons 'fitness' to succeed in sport by their looks.
This only results in mis-guided focus on low body fat and bulging biceps, neither which are in my opinion correlated with success on the scoreboard.
Reminds me of the before and after photos used by the Wallabies conditioner in the lead up to the 1999 world cup. I thought such dumb and misguided interpretations of preparedness for sport were limited to bodybuilding magazines....
But we are so strong in the gym....
The tragic evidence of the adoption of the US sports and cultural mentality...
In a quiet moment of the Round 8 game between the Western Force and the Blue Bulls, a commentator made mention of his conversations prior ot the game with Western Force players proudly sharing that some of the team achieved PBs in the gym that week....
With a 0-7 win loss to that time, and last on the ladder, the last thing anyone interested in the Force's success would want to hear about is anything that has nothing to do with the scoreboard. They may as as well boast about their ability to play marbles....
I don't need any more evidence to support my theory that there is no correlation between the load lifted in the gym and the scoreboard (and I introduced strength training to more rugby players than any other individual in the history of the game) - and sadly, no amount of evidence of the absence of this correlation will help the limited intelelligence (when it comes to training) of so many connected to the game, including those who actually do influence the training....
In a quiet moment of the Round 8 game between the Western Force and the Blue Bulls, a commentator made mention of his conversations prior ot the game with Western Force players proudly sharing that some of the team achieved PBs in the gym that week....
With a 0-7 win loss to that time, and last on the ladder, the last thing anyone interested in the Force's success would want to hear about is anything that has nothing to do with the scoreboard. They may as as well boast about their ability to play marbles....
I don't need any more evidence to support my theory that there is no correlation between the load lifted in the gym and the scoreboard (and I introduced strength training to more rugby players than any other individual in the history of the game) - and sadly, no amount of evidence of the absence of this correlation will help the limited intelelligence (when it comes to training) of so many connected to the game, including those who actually do influence the training....
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