Reds dream draw continues

If you wanted to win against SA teams from ANZ would you play their strongest teams in SA and their weakest team in Aust? No - you would play their weakest teams in SA and their strongest team in Aust, where SA teams winning is as rare as a LNP winning the state election in Queensland during the last 10 or more years.

The Reds played the Cheetahs first (11th placed out of 14 teams), then the Sharks next (12th placed out of 14 teams), and then the Lions (13th placed out of 14 teams. And the Lions will have just come back from their ANZ road trip, so they will be totally smashed. And possibly winless on the road.

The Super 14 committee could not have given the Reds a better draw to lose that losing feeling and join the middle ranks of the competition from the cellar where they have dwelled for almost a decade.

Waratahs v Force - 2 tired teams or tradition?

The Round 6 clash between the Force and the Waratahs was a close, low scoring, flat game.  The commentators put it down to tradition, with the last 4 of their games being decided by 5 points or less.

I know another tradition - the Waratahs fading anytime from half-way onwards in the season. Now since Coach McKenzie was the first coach to stifle that tradition after it held for over a decade, they do seem less prone. But I am not convinced it's gone away.

As for the Perth. I have said enough about that - they define fatigue, by their fades, low win rate, and exhausted faces.

SA teams weak means more final chances for Australian teams

When SA has two strong teams in the Super competition, it means less Aussie teams make it to the final 4. When SA have say the Sharks and the Bulls firing, that leaves only 2 spots to fit all Aust and NZ teams into. Sounds simplistic, but this was one of the factors that contribed to no Australian teams making the playoffs in 2009. A point I am sure is not lost on the ARU.

In 2010, with the Sharks strong on paper and weak on the field, only the Bulls are left. What about the Stormers you ask? If they were still in the mix at the end of the regular season it would be almost out of character. They have a habit of slipping out of contention as the season moves to an end. As for the winning the championship - that would be really against history.

'Are the Reds the real deal now?' asked the butcher

'Are the Reds' the real deal?' asked the butcher.

'I don't know', I said.  'Ask me that in a year or two - they are in their honeymoon year.'

The first year under a new coach is what I call the honeymoon year. Everything is great, everyone's happy.  Year two is a 'Settling' year, and if there are cracks they begin to appear towards the end of year 2 and become more apparent in year 3, the 'Reality' year.

The last Australian team to win a Super Rugby Championship, the Brumbies in 2004,  did so in the 1st year of a new coaching cycle.

Moving up the ladder board substantially in the first year of new coaches cycle gives everyone a warm feeling and enhances the new coaches position when negotiating their contract in the latter stage of year 2 (ironcially they typically get signed up for a new term before the reality year 3 happens!)

One thing we can draw upon is the coaches pattern.  McKenzie is 0 from 5 for Super Rugby Championships, although his former team was in the playoffs, and he made the finals quite a few times. So all things being equal, this could be repeated. Every year that goes and a coach does not win a championship, the lower the chances of them ever winning one. If a coach is aware of this, it must feel like a noose tightening around their neck.  Winning coaches usually win early in their career, and consistantly.

However a challenge, rarely recognized, with finishing up too high on the ladder in year one is the pressure it places on year 2.  The best long term outcome is a progressive and continual movement up the ladder in a multi-year plan.

Either way, each years final ladder result presents the opportunity to draw a trend graph.

One thing i am sure of for this year? The Western Force have taken on the Reds role as the Australian team whipping boys of the 2010 season, and will finish the lowest ranked Australian team.

The question that remains for the decision makers in Queensland Rugby - can the Reds win a championship under the current coach?  Well the Reds are one of only 6 teams to have ever won Super Rugby, but is was a long time ago now. And the Coach has not won one yet. Can they collectively re-shape this? It will take something special. Even though to coaches take major credit for championship wins, I suggest if you look deeper you find stronger correlations or contributors. Have the Reds got this in the playing or support team?

Travel fatigue on first game back real for ANZ sides

Despite firm claims I've heard from coaches at national and provincial level, I firmly believe that the trip to South Africa by Australian and New Zealand provincial teams, if not handled properly, results in fatigued performances on the first game back home minimum.

Not to overlook the cost of failing to manage the training when the Australian teams are in SA - their poor win/loss record in SA speaks for itself - a discussion for another day.

Round 4 in this years Super 14 Competiton against confirmed my this theory - in fact is it is obvious now that even the commentators make loose mention of it. After participating in and observing Super rugby for nearly 20 years, I don't need to see any more evidence. Apparently the coaches do....

The Chiefs lost at home to the Reds and failed to get a 4 try bonus point. The Waratahs and the Brumbies both scraped a win at home against the Sharks and Cats respectively. None of the latter two winning teams were able to achieve a four try bonus point. The averages points scored by all six teams in these three games was roughly 50% of the average in the four games so far this year with the new rule interpretations.

SA scrums like Samson after a hair cut

Just as South African back lines finally learn to run straight (advancing to switches and other finesse are for another decade) the forward packs loose their power, like Samson after a haircut.

Once the pride of South African rugby and the fear of all other nations, the SA provincial packs are looking like schooboys agasint me.

In Round 3 the Waratahs destroyed the Bull, and in Round 4 the Brumbies destroyed the Cats, as two examples.

Improved Australian scrums or weakened yarpie scrums? Time will tell.

ARU and the QRU

Announced today in the Australian papers, the ARU rescue package and their increased 'involvement' in the decision making within Queensland Rugby. Mmmm.

Guess it means one less step in the process - tt used to be the ARU had to threaten to rehold funding if the QRU didn't act in obeyance of their wishes - now than can just say no.

Two down, 2 to go. The only escape now will be full privatization, something I talked about over 10 years ago. The Rebels may be in that model, and it is inevitable. Just a matter of when.

Reds up over Chiefs in NZ

For the first time in 5 years the Reds won at Waikato against home town the Chiefs. Tired Chiefs (just back from South Africa/Perth leg) or hot Reds? Time will tell.

The continuation of the Reds dream draw for 2010. Meeting teams just back from SA - next best thing after a home game.

Super 15 to commence in 2011

The ever expanding Super Competition goes to 15 teams with initial competition between three groups of 5 teams. A bit like the Super 10, when there were two pools of 5.

Rebels to represent Victoria in 2011 Super 15

When I learnt who was going to coach the Rebels in their inaugural season in the Super 15 I made these predictions, based on history at this level - it won't go past 2 years in the job, and they won't win the competition in that time.  Could be off-track, but simply looking at the past to predict the future.

History and winners

A breif summary of winners in Super rugby:

* From 1992, to 2009 - only 6 teams have ever won the competition
* 2 of those so long ago it's a distant memory
* Which leaves us with only 4 winning outfits in the last 10 years
* The NSW Waratahs have not won a thing, in 19 years of Super Rugby. Not the only ones, but as they are the power house financially, politically, demographically and geographically of Australian rugby (and SA and NZ power bases of their times have all produced at least one win), the Australian master plan isn't working - no wonder since they keep basing on the NSW Waratahs....)
* Only 3 of those 6 teams have a 100% win ratio in the big game, the final
* The Brumbies have the poorest win:loss ratio in finals of all teams who have played the finals. even though they deserve credit for going to the finals the second most times of all teans. But no-one remembers who lost....

Super 6

 1992 - Queensland (now the Reds)

Super 10

1993 - Transvaal (then the Cats and now the Lions)
1994 - Queensland (now the Reds)
1995 - Queensland (now the Reds)

Super 12

1996 - Blues
1997 - Blues
1998 - Crusaders
1999 - Crusaders
2000 - Crusaders
2001 - Brumbies
2002 - Crusaders
2003 - Blues
2004 - Brumbies
2005 - Crusaders

Super 14

2006 - Crusaders
2007 - Bulls
2008 - Crusaders
2009 - Bulls
2009 -

Team Wins Runner-up

Team    Won   Runner Up

Crusaders    7      2
Blues           3      1
Brumbies     2     3
Reds            3     0
Bulls           2      0
Lions          1      0

Sharks         0     3
Waratahs     0     2
Highlanders 0    1
Hurricanes   0    1
Chiefs          0    1

Wins by Country

Country         Wins    Runner-up

New Zealand 10         6
Australia        2           5
South Africa  2           3




http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_14#Past_winners

Waratahs scrum smashes the Bulls

I was very impressed with the NSW Waratahs scrum in Round 3 vs the Bulls. Destroyed them. Too early in the competition to judge the Bulls scrum, but traditionally they have been the gold standard. 

The scrum coach Michael Foley deserves the credit for this. In the past members of that pack have been the proud owners of highly used roller skates.

The ernomity of this task was not lost on the Sydney Morning Herald Journalist late last year when he wrote:

The former test hooker leaves the Wallabies coaching team after three seasons, during which he has been instrumental in achieving major gains in Australian forward play - to the extent that a pack which was often laughed at is now accepted as being of international standard.

But that challenge could be in the mini-league compared to getting the Waratahs pack sorted out next year, especially as they will be without three vital players - their lineout leader Dan Vickerman, and back-rowers Rocky Elsom and David Lyons.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/opinion/columnists/greg-growden/592444/i-Foley-focused-on-filling-big-gaps-in-Tahs-pack-i

Now all they need to do is become a winning outfit, something they have never been in the 19 odd years of Super Rugby History.

Looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane...

The saying looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane, has great application in rugby. The sad reality (or at least my reality) is that looking good on the posing stage or in your younger brothers t-shirt or playing jersey has no correlation with success on the field in rugby.

Tell that to the rugby players. More importantly, tell that to the physical preparation coaches. For many of them, the ability to create hypertrophy in their charges is their high point, the exhaustion of the skill set.

It's a tragic trend. One that started a few decades ago in America, accentuated when bodybuildling magazine published adds with the bodybuilders wearing the clothing of a variety of athletes.

American athletes have had the disease of training to look like Tarzan (a bodybuilder) and performing (on the real world stage, not the domestic 'World Championship' series) like Jane.

In the 1980s and 1990s I gave very little rein to players wanting to buff their guns or their chest. There is plenty of time after retirement from competition rugby. Oh, and a minor point - there are more important things to do to enhance performance.

Now for the last few years in Australia you couldn't board a Qantas jet without seeing a picture of a rugby players bulging biceps, and by now every kid in Australia who plays or wants to play rugby (and with the way the game has been managed in this country thats an endangered speicies) would now know the keys to success in rugby - look like Tarzan.

In the 1970s and early 80's no-one did strength training in rugby. By the late 1980s only the most self-absorbed chose to build Adonis like physiques for their emotional needs.  As the 1990s progressed I held back the flood gates. But as 2000 rolled around, the bodybuilding methods become the standard fare.

So from being the best trialthletes in the 1990s, the Australian rugby players are now the best bodybuilders in World Rugby.

Pity about the rugby scoreboard....

Hope for the Cheetahs

The achilles heel of South African rugby the Cheetahs are looking like they may win a few more games this year, with a 1-2 win loss start.

Chiefs are looking good

For so many years the whipping boys of NZ rugby, the Waikato Chiefs are looking good. 2-0 from their  South African road trip and a win on the way home against the Western Force. They can make the Top 4 if they can maintain this. At least the top 2 of the NZ teams.

Reds miss opportunity to beat Blues

Auckland are a middle of the ladder kind of team in this era, so were beatable for the Reds when they met in Round 3 in Brisbane.

However the Reds lost the environment advantage this night, which was in their favour when the boys from the south Island of NZ (Crusaders) ran tired the week before.

[Reminds me of a humid day game in Brisbane around the early 2000's when The Crusaders were expected to fade under the Brisbane sun against the Reds. The reverse occured to such an extent that some of the Crusader player started mocking the Reds players who were literally stuffed - and Crusaders won].

The temp was cool for Brisbane in Feb in Brisbane, and the rain was torrential. Dampened the return of the Reds to Ballymore but more importantly took some of the home ground advantage away from them.

The Reds really did need to win more of their first 3 home games than 1-2 to really shift upwards in self-belief. Another day....

Sharks 0-3

The Sharks have started poorly. 0-3. They are a better team than that. But so were the Bulls of 2008 who dropped down the ladder.

I didn't predict or expect the Bulls to go from Champions to easy-beats in the 2007 to 2008 transition, so who knows what's happening with the Sharks.

Air punching inversely related to success

A simple rule I apply is this - the more a team celebrates the little stuff, the less likely they expect to receive/achieve the big stuff.

So when I see stuff that would look in place at the Gay Mardi Gras after a try is scored that is anything less than the defining momement of the game, I have the same expectations of this team that they do - thats the big stuff.

The Bulls are a great example of a non-demonstrative team at try time. Especially Victor Matfield. The cellar dwellars are the reverse.

Brumbies get a lesson from the Bulls

In Round 2 the Brumbies lost to the Bulls, which at the moment is not a complete embarrassment with the way the Bulls are playing.

However with a star-studded team the Brumbies are under presesure of expectation to perform well this year. Nothing they have done so far meets that expectations but it is early days.

At this stage my prediction is they will be just in or just out of the top 4.

Reds are rebuilding - again

I've lost count of the number of different coaches that the Queensland Reds have had, or the player turnover. But unlike most, I don't blame either. They don't pick themselves. The forgotten yet most responsible parties are the administrators and boards.

This time the Reds have had a bit of a board and adminstrator clean out as well as a coach clean out. Can 'Slaughter' fix it? Bob the builder himself would be challenged.

And how will Coach McKenzie fair? Tough gig, even for a coach who has shown he is above average.

What I want to know are where are all those administrators (national and state) who drove Queensland rugby into the ground over the last decade. Probably promoted within rugby....

I feel sorry for the Western Force

It must be tough coming out week in week out knowing you are doing it tough. Year after year. I give these guys credit for coming out of the sheds.

I would be suprised if their coach lasted the season. He certainly has outlasted the team performance.

Rebels to represent Victoria in 2011 Super 15

When I learnt who was going to coach the Rebels in their inaugural season in the Super 15 I made these predictions, based on history at this level - it won't go past 2 years in the job, and they won't win the competition in that time.  Could be off-track, but simply looking at the past to predict the future.

Super 15 to commence in 2011

The ever expanding Super Competition goes to 15 teams with initial competition between three groups of 5 teams. A bit like the Super 10, when there were two pools of 5.

I was in the best condition of my life - I don't understand it....

'I was in the best condition of my life - I don't understand it.'

That was in essence what the athlete was reported in the media as saying - after his hamstring tore off from the bone.

I don't want to draw attention to the athlete or the organization, as they don't deserve anything perceived as negative aimed at them - they are simply a pretty good snapshot (in my opinion) of where the elite sporting world (and all levels down) are at in relation to the perspectives towards injury.

You see, the person responsible for injury prevention/rehabilitation added to this snapshot when he was quoted by the media as saying words to the effect:

'It was just a freak accident.'

You might get by now that I don't buy into this perspective - that in my opinion the athlete was not the best shape of his life (at least not in a global way - maybe in one specific area); and that it was not a freak accident.

Let me guess - after watching the video of the incident (no, I didn't guess on this, as this was reported in the media!) they didn't see anything significant that would explain why the injury would occur. Does that make it a freak accident? If we allow our bodies to get into an appropriate condition, and this leads to an injury during a relatively benign activity (like getting out of bed, tying your laces, picking something up off the floor - and yes, these are common actions associated with 'can't be explained' injuries) - does that mean it was a freak accident? No - it means we got so off track in our condition that a minor incident was all that it took to take us over the edge.

So we have a franchise out of pocket for the players salary for the year, a teams plans thrown into turmoil because they just lost their marque player a week or two before the season start, an athlete who is out of action for the year and who knows what long term ramifications - these are not light consequences. These are not freak circumstances. He was not in the condition of his life.

This occurred as a result of the low level of understanding of professional athletes and their service providers (and the broader community) of what it takes to cause an injury and what it takes to prevent an injury.

It's not good enough, but if people choose to participate in this perspective of injury, then they can't shift the responsibility away - they got what they deserved. There is a better way....

And that's not all the Bulls are happy to do

After 2 rounds something else is apparent about the Bulls.

The Bulls also stand apart from all teams, even those who traditionally espouse they define running rugby - the Bulls are happy to forgo the 3 points from gift penalties to drive to the line for a try and 5-7 points. I have never seen a team so consistantly and confidently do this. A great sign for their self-belief.

On this alone they look like they will be in the play-offs, provided the wheels don't fall off on their road trip or they suffer injury to key personal.

Bulls happy to come from behind

After round 2 something else is apparent - the Bulls are taking on the Crusaders mentality (intentially or otherwise, and are happy to let the lead go to the opponent before coming back and taking over the game again.

And just as it worked for the Crusaders, sometimese it doesn't. There are going to times, especially when they are on the road, when they are not going to be able to pull it back in and will lose.

Seems that when you are a great team, confident and relaxed, you loose the lead often at the start.

High scoring games

After 2 rounds one thing is clear - the way the rules changes are  being implemented, especially in the first few games of the year when the refs are anal (implementing the instructions  they have received in a highly compliant manner) - the scores are really high, both by winning and losing team.

A combination of excessive penalties (especially for slowing the ball down in rucks etc), more than average yellow cards, and general stand-off ness by the players in fear of infringing is causing massive scorelines.

Will be interesting to see if the players close the loop holes or otherwise work out how to 'work the system' and/or the refs get tired of stopping play - and the scores come back down. Or not.

Its been coming for so long - Reds beat Crusaders

Even though the Reds haven't beaten the Crusaders for some 10 years, this results been building up, at least when playing in Brisbane.  The Crusaders have been so good for so long I believe they have a challenge raising their urgency when playing team with lesser recent performance histories. And if the game gets away on them, they don't currently have the magic needed to get back to win. It's been coming.

Reds - 41 v Crusaders (NZ) - 20

Home wins rare in Round 1

After Round 1 only 1 team has won at home, with the Crusaders beating the Highlanders.

Crusaders (NZ) - 32 v Highlanders (NZ) - 17

Interesting start.

They've lost that winning feeling

Reds - 28 v Waratahs - 30 Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

The biggest challenge facing the Queensland Reds is losing the loser mindset. Not suggesting they aren't trying, but when you get familiar with losing, it's not easy expecting to win.

This game reminded me of the first round in 1998 - Queensland scored a try within minutes of the game against Otago Highlanders at the House of Pain. And finished with 3 tries to one - but still just lost. And this was after only two seasons on the slide, especially 1997, finishing 10th out of 12 teams.

Queensland now has over a decade of being on the slide. That's tough to change back to a winning culture and will take time. Whilst this is happening they don't need any destabilizing in the process or any move forward will be sabatagued. With a number of powerful parties keen to stick the pin into the Reds ballon, they have battles on many fronts to fight.

Cantebury Crusaders not likely to support the punters

Apparently Cantebury Crusaders are tipped by the punters or similar to be a dominant force in the Top 4 or something like that.

I don't think so. They can make the Top 4, but I believe their incredible period of dominance is coming to end.  They have been playing complacent catch up rugby, winning in the final quarter, for a long time now. Nice if you can do it. But not sustainable.

Now they are going to be spending more time wondering where it's gone wrong. And of course, the absence of McGraw at the start of the season doesn't help.

Their main concern now however is spending too much time looking over their shoulder and all around trying to work out where their mojo has gone.

South African Team the most disadvantaged

The South African teams are the most disadvantaged of all teams in the Super 14.  They are on the road longer and travel further. To add to that they excacerbate this with their approach to training. Either way, no wonder their record on the road is dismal. Once they secure a home final however, it is usually a done deal.

The Dream Draw - Qld Reds

The Qld Reds have the dream draw for 2010. Playing at home first vs. going to the road, especially to South Africa. It's tough playing the Africans on home soil at the start of the season, before their perennial fade from (dare I whisper the word) over-train...hold it, I know how to say it better - from lack of recovery - from their approach to training and travel.

Playing NSW, the arch-enemy, in Brisbane. I am confident the stats will support a greater chance of the Reds winning on home soil (if you can call Suncorp home).

Cantebury at home for the Reds AND at the start of the season. I wouldn't need all the fingers on one hand to count the number of seasons the Christchurch team have been in form for the start of the season.

Then Auckland in home in Brisbane - this time really at home, at Ballymore.

It doesn't get any better. This could give the momentum for reasonably successful season relatively speaking for this team.