The Red's Dream Draw in 2010

Let's go through the dream draw:

Rd 1 vs NSW Waratahs - home game, giving them a much greater chance of winning.

Rd 2 vs Crusaders - home game and early season - the best time to play a typically slow to get going team like this

Rd 3 vs Blues - home game against another Kiwi team, giving them a much greater chance of winning

The worst way to start the season is

1. play on the road

2. play South African team in SA - as they are better earlier in the season, compared with NZ teams that are more likely to be a bit off pace in the first few games.

So the first 3 games were heaven-sent, ideal for a team that needed to get confidence back. The fact that they were 1-2 win / loss was only a result of their initial dis-belief in themselves. This was a dream draw to start, and their 2 close losses gave them enough confidence to build upon.

Rd 4 vs Chiefs - played away, but against a team coming back from SA. Away games don't get much better.

Rd 5 vs Force - at home, against the lowest ranked team - doesn't get much easier than this.

Rd 6 - bye.

So the second 25% of the regular season games again are based on a draw that doesn't get any better.

Now for the third 25% of the regular season:

Rd 7 vs Cheetahs - an away game against a team competing with the Cats to be the worst SA team this season.

Rd 8 vs Sharks - an away game that most years would have been tough, but this season this team has struggled to win anything and is sitting as low on the table as the Cats and Cheetahs.

Rd 9 vs Cats - an away game against a team that will probably not win a game this season.

So the third 25% of the regular season games become the 3rd block of 3 games that are nothing short of heaven sent.

Now for the final 4 games:

Rd 10 vs Bulls - at home, but tough because first game back from a road trip - but this is the Bulls 4th and final road game, one they may never have won (i.e. last game on the ANZ road trip) - so for a game against the Bulls it doesn't get much better - Reds at home, Bulls last game on tour.

Rd 11 vs Stormers - at home, with a team peforming better on the road this season than the Bulls but still better than playing them at their home. The Stormers 3rd game on the road.

Rd 12 vs Brumbies - away, which is tough [yet to be played]

Rd 13 vs Hurricanes - away - tought but not as tough as say playing a strong SA team early in the year at altitude [yet to be played]. If the Hurricanes are out of final contentions by then their committment to winning the game will be lower

Rd 14 vs Highlanders - at home, against the lowest ranking NZ team [yet to be played] - should be a given

So the Reds had 9 games to get in the groove, before having really challenging games. Ideal draw for a team, especially one rebuilding their self-belief.

In summary the best draw for an Australian team is one where you:

1. have home games to get your season rolling
2. play NZ teams early in the season, especially Cantebury. They bare not ususally at their best yet,
3. play SA teams at lower altidues when you do tour SA
4. play teams from colder climates at home earlier in the season where you have heat acclimatization advantage
5. play the weakest SA team on your road trip to SA
6. play the strongest SA teams late in the season, at home, and late in their road trip schedule
7. play the Brumbies at home early in the season so you have a heat adaptation advantage AND their unique winter dew is not a factor

Look familiar? Sumes up the Reds drawer (except for one point).

On the flip side, the toughest draw for an Australian team is one where you:

1. go on the road to SA up front
2. play the strongest SA teams early in the season at their home grounds
3. play SA teams at altidue
4. play teams from colder climates at home later in the season where you lose your heat acclimatization advantage
5. play the NZ teams later in the draw, especially Cantebury
6. play the SA teams at home early in their road trips
7. play the Brumbies away late in the season where you don't have a heat adaptation advantage AND their unique winter dew IS a factor